Tag Archives: Money

The government's role in the economy

As a follow-up to this week’s previous post about the stock market and automakers, here is Rachel with more on how the economy works.

I think one of the most common misconceptions is that the government is in charge of creating money. Yes, they produce physical cash and they attempt to manage the money supply via interest rates, discount rates, and reserve requirements. But if you look at these ways that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve can manipulate the money supply, it’s largely through controlling the bank’s actions. And while the government usually plays a strong role in determining the amount of money in circulation, lately it’s found that it’s ability to affect change has been limited.

Banks utilize fractional reserve requirements to leverage the amount of money they are able to loan. Essentially a reserve ratio is a limit set by the government that ties the amount of loans made to the amount of deposits held by the bank. Conservatively, banks today have a required reserve ratio of 10% (and in some cases 3% or 0%). This means that for every $100 of legal tender that is deposited with the bank, the bank is allowed to loan out $90. Should this $90 be spent in such a way that it is eventually re-deposited with a bank, that bank is able to issue a new loan of $81 based on their fractional reserve requirements. If this process continues uninterrupted, the bank can issue up to $1,000 in newly created fiat money from that original $100 deposit. Because bank credit has been legally decreed by the government to be a medium of exchange, the banks just created $900.

For a bank to remain operational, reserve requirements must be met every day, meaning that a bank must have the correct ratio of deposits to outstanding loans. Previously, banks could borrow from each other if they had a shortfall of deposits or, for a small interest rate, lend any excess deposits overnight to banks in need. So what does the current landscape look like? As more and more institutions become crippled and sometimes bankrupted by their bad loans and “toxic assets”, the inter-bank lending market has seen increased stagnation. Banks are scared of what yet undisclosed disaster may lie in wait on each others’ balance sheets, and thus are unwilling to lend to any entity that they deem to be a risk in returning their capital. Banks who previously relied on the operational flexibility allowed by the market’s liquidity (read: all of the them) are now severely limiting credit issued to consumers, as the existence of their business depends on them keeping what remains of their balance sheet in check.

What does all that mean? No lending. And what happens when the banks refuse to lend money, not to individuals, not to corporations, not even to each other? The end result is that you have an economy used to the periodic injection of $900 waiting in fear, unable to find financing for basic individual and business needs. As the perception that the money supply has dried up continues, consumers stop spending and businesses are then hit with decreased revenue in addition to loss of credit. This has lead to business cost-cutinng efforts, including work force reduction, which in turn contributes to the growing consumer panic. Growth has slowed to the point of retraction, spending has ground to a halt, and you have a society that is firmly in the midst of both economic and financial crises.

Say what you will about the bailouts, but the government’s interest is intrinsically tied to the bank’s operations. The banking system’s ability and willingness to lend are going to play a large role in the economy because the whole process is a cyclical relationship. So far we have spent $158.6 billion in “recapitalizing the banks.” Though the execution of this plan has been somewhat dubious, the overall goal is to provide the banks with more money in deposits, meaning that they can now lend without fear of violating their reserve requirement. Theoretically, injecting the money into the economy through the banks should bolster their balance sheets, allow lending, increase consumer confidence, help businesses, and slow the downward spiral. Admittedly this theory depends entirely on your economic perspective and has already displayed several significant flaws.

The politics behind the bailouts are sticky and the plan’s effectiveness is questioned by many. However, it is useful to try to try to think through the banking system and the interwoven structure of cause and effect without the cloud of sensational news. I would love to hear your thoughts on the situation.

Also, those who are further interested may want to follow NPR’s Planet Money podcast for a more in-depth look at many of the underlying issues.

Why people are always wrong about Facebook

People like Scoble still think Microsoft is going to drop something like $20 billion on Facebook. A site with maybe $0.2 billion in revenue? Yeah, okay. Aside from what I like to call the decimal-place-mismatch let me explain why Facebook is not worth that much and why Zuckerberg is not a billionaire.

We aren’t in a vacuum

There are many more variables to how Microsoft decides to drop $240 million on a “stake.” Sorry but you can’t just say “oh, that’s a percentage, let’s multiply it.”

I liken the situation to that of my friend who recently started a company and moved into 200 square feet of a 10,000 foot floor (for those of you playing at home, that’s 2%). A generous businessman owns 10,000 of empty space and is renting 200 square feet for, let’s say, $2,000/month. So can we say that each square foot is worth $10 and call it good? Sure. Wait, no–no we can’t!

Just like we can’t say each percentage of Facebook ownership is worth $150 million. Just like we can’t say Zuckerberg’s 30% puts him at $5 billion.

We can’t cross-multiply-and-divide because we should consider the fact that

  • My friend has the bathrooms all to himself
  • My friend can be as loud as he wants
  • He can throw a party in the space and not compete for the “prime” space
  • There is no competition for resources like printers, power, corner offices, etc.
  • The infrastructure is already there to support him and his growth

To keep up with the metaphor, Microsoft can do at Facebook what my friend can do in his new office space. The money ($14.75 billion) isn’t really there. Nobody went to Mark’s bank account and deposited a billion dollars. Microsoft assigned a dollar amount to a percentage–but that dollar amount is coming with more than a “slice” of the pie. So we can’t treat it like that. Stop doing that!

I know my point is simplistic but I’m a little annoyed (that this isn’t the first time we’re throwing around huge numbers at Facebook). This is why people like Sarah Lacey suck and why Scoble will never be one of those folks I ever listen to. Sorry to get personal but let’s slow down and think about this…

Credit Balance Tip

If you’re like me, you enjoy spending all your money using a credit card (bonus miles, reward points, easier to track, etc.). But, when month-end comes and you spent $1,200 of your $1,800 limit it’s going to look really bad on your credit score (because you’re using a lot of credit). Since I’m paid twice a month I pay my bill twice a month. In other words, pay off your balance half-way through the month to keep your final balance low. Plus, it helps remind your checking account that you are indeed spending real money.

Tuesday Tip: Get a paper shredder

I’ve put it off for so long. I always know I need to get a shredder and start destroying some documents. With 2006 taxes coming up I have no need to hold onto 2005 pay stubs, I’ve already reconciled to my W-2s. I have no need to hang onto old University bills, credit card statements, etc. In fact, here’s a guide on what you can trash. But, before you put it out on the curb you should definitely look a little closer..

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SUCKE(RED)

I hate the (RED) campaign and everyone associated with it (both the consumers and the companies advocating it). Josh Spear has posted a neat little news clip about it. CNN says:

It has cost $100M to market the campaign while only raising $18M for charity.

No kidding? Get people to “give” more by spending more on themselves? Sigh.

Budget your time like it’s your money

Actually, I think the title should read more like: “budget your time nearly the same way you should be budgeting your money”. If you know me then you I’m a) an accountant, b) a big fan of personal finance, and c) looking for new ways to be productive. I’ve found a secret I’ll share with you right now. When you “budget” your time, do it the same way you “budget” your money…

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